sentix-Special Survey Results

Greece debt crisis

Survey date: April, 28th 2010, 13:30 - 18:00 MESZ, 629 respondents

1) What is the likely endgame of the current debt crisis in Greece or what should be done to resolve it (multiple answer allowed)?

2. Will the steps taken solve the problem?

Yes: 20,9%
Yes, but only short-term: 43%
No: 36,2%

3. If a debt restructuring takes place, how much may the creditors have to write-off?

4. Which countries may face the same "destiny" like Greece within the next 2 years?

5. How do you think of Greek government bonds as an investment?

• 75,4% don't touch it
• 1,6% have bonds and want to sell
• 10,4% have bonds and want to keep them
• 2,7% have bonds and want to increase the position
• 9,9% have no bonds but plan to invest

6. In which way are you restricted in your bond investments (by choice or as ordered)?

• 6,4% investments only in Bunds or Bundeslaender
• 11,6% only bonds from the Euro-core (Germany, France, Netherlands, Austria)
• 6,4% liquid markets (core + Spain, Italy)
• 9,2% everything without PIIGS
• 4,1% unrestricted without Portugal and Greece
• 62,4% no restrictions

7. Do you think the Euro will remain unchanged for the next 2 years?

Yes: 67,1%
No: 32,9%

8. Rate the prospects of different asset classes within the next 3 months (1 = best, 5 = worst)

Now let us think what these answers of a representative panel of investors mean for the markets.

What's very interesting is, that the probability that a country face debt problems seems not to much related to the debt to GDP ratio (Belgium for example seems relative immune).

Also it is interesting that investment restrictions are not so common as I thought.

And a third finding is that a greek bond trading around 60% seem to have discounted the worst investors can imagine right now (which sounds interesting).