Monday, July 5, 2010

sentix Economic index - Look at the US and China

If you look only on the index for Euroland you may be surprised by the rise in the overall index to -1.3 from -4.1. Details on http://konjunktur.sentix.de/ (interactive charts and analysis).

But this is not the full story. More important is the sharp drop in the expectations for the US economy:


sentix Eco expectations USA (blue), ISM manuf. (orange) and Non-manuf. (magenta)

There is a meaningful lead of the sentix indices over the ISM and this points to more trouble ahead for the US economy. The german numbers may be to high as optimism is high due to our football national team ;-)

The main pattern is observable for Japan and the Asian region:


sentix Asia ex Japan expectations (blue) and China-PMI (orange)

The economic dynamic is fading especially in the US and the important Asian region. A double dip is waiting.
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2 comments:

  1. modJuly 5, 2010 at 2:04 PM

    What makes you so sure we´re in for a double dip?
    I see that those ism indexes and sentix eco expectations all topped in 2004 when the next recession was still four years away. Why should it be different now?

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  2. Woolly thoughts (by sentix)July 5, 2010 at 2:22 PM

    The economic situation is much more fragile with deflationary pressure still operating. Countries like the US or UK show no credit growth which for them alone is a big negative.

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